Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
