Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.