Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
